Best HGSS Black Star Promos Cards to Grade
The HGSS Black Star Promos cards worth grading, ranked by expected profit per submission — every grade outcome weighted by how often the card actually receives it — after current grading fees. The PSA 10 best case is shown on every row but does not decide the order. Top pick: Lugia at an expected +$5,345.
Ranked by expected profit 17
| # | Card | Raw | PSA 9 | PSA 10 | Cost | Best case | Gem rate | Expected | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Expected +$5,345 per submission: 3.5% of 508 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($144,000), and a PSA 9 ($2,749) still clears the $6,601 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $142 | $2,749 | $144,000 | $6,459 | +$137,399 | 3.5% | +$5,345 | 508 high |
| 2 | Expected +$802 per submission: 2.4% of 1,459 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($30,000), and a PSA 9 ($990) still clears the $2,354 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $35 | $990 | $30,000 | $2,319 | +$27,646 | 2.4% | +$802 | 1,459 high |
| 3 | Expected +$243 per submission: 6.1% of 246 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($4,800), and only a PSA 10 covers the $433 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $16 | $95 | $4,800 | $417 | +$4,367 | 6.1% | +$243 | 246 high |
| 4 | Expected +$157 per submission: 6.7% of 252 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($3,049), and a PSA 9 ($115) still clears the $417 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $18 | $115 | $3,049 | $399 | +$2,631 | 6.7% | +$157 | 252 high |
| 5 | Expected +$119 per submission: 0.2% of 818 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($1,191), and a PSA 9 ($1,185) still clears the $187 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $75 | $1,185 | $1,191 | $112 | +$1,004 | 0.2% | +$119 | 818 high |
| 6 | Expected +$83 per submission: 0.4% of 534 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($611), and a PSA 9 ($477) still clears the $142 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $56 | $477 | $611 | $86 | +$470 | 0.4% | +$83 | 534 high |
| 7 | Expected +$76 per submission: 0.8% of 530 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($2,016), and a PSA 9 ($1,770) still clears the $292 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $53 | $1,770 | $2,016 | $239 | +$1,724 | 0.8% | +$76 | 530 high |
| 8 | Expected +$74 per submission: 0.5% of 646 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($1,032), and a PSA 9 ($950) still clears the $181 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $71 | $950 | $1,032 | $110 | +$851 | 0.5% | +$74 | 646 high |
| 9 | Expected +$69 per submission: 2.6% of 273 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($1,825), and a PSA 9 ($343) still clears the $277 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $40 | $343 | $1,825 | $237 | +$1,547 | 2.6% | +$69 | 273 high |
| 10 | Expected loss −$2 per submission: 10.5% of 19 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($500), and only a PSA 10 covers the $102 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence low on that sample. | $17 | $95 | $500 | $85 | +$398 | 10.5% | −$2 | 19 low |
| 11 | Expected loss −$4 per submission: 0.2% of 510 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($462), and a PSA 9 ($185) still clears the $131 you have in it. Confidence high on that sample. | $46 | $185 | $462 | $85 | +$332 | 0.2% | −$4 | 510 high |
| 12 | Expected loss −$16 per submission: 2.4% of 83 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($390), and a PSA 9 ($130) still clears the $114 you have in it. Confidence medium on that sample. | $30 | $130 | $390 | $84 | +$276 | 2.4% | −$16 | 83 medium |
| 13 | Expected loss −$20 per submission: 0% of 54 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($192), and a PSA 9 ($150) still clears the $96 you have in it. Confidence medium on that sample. | $14 | $150 | $192 | $82 | +$97 | 0% | −$20 | 54 medium |
| 14 | Expected loss −$52 per submission: 1.8% of 56 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($150), and only a PSA 10 covers the $97 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence medium on that sample. | $16 | $70 | $150 | $81 | +$53 | 1.8% | −$52 | 56 medium |
| 15 | Expected loss −$58 per submission: 0% of 24 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($304), and a PSA 9 ($118) still clears the $104 you have in it. Confidence low on that sample. | $21 | $118 | $304 | $83 | +$200 | 0% | −$58 | 24 low |
| 16 | Expected loss −$62 per submission: 0% of 12 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($247), and only a PSA 10 covers the $100 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence low on that sample. | $18 | $99 | $247 | $82 | +$146 | 0% | −$62 | 12 low |
| 17 | Expected loss −$90 per submission: 0% of 64 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($350), and a PSA 9 ($140) still clears the $138 you have in it. Confidence medium on that sample. | $55 | $140 | $350 | $83 | +$211 | 0% | −$90 | 64 medium |
Best case only — no gem-rate evidence 1
Fewer than 10 graded copies in the PSA and CGC population reports. They clear the grading cost if they gem — that is all the numbers support.
| # | Card | Raw | PSA 9 | PSA 10 | Cost | Best case | Gem rate | Expected | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | $600 | — | $9,888 | $718 | +$8,570 | — | — | none <10 |
Expected = every grade outcome weighted by its share of the card's graded population, minus the raw price and the grading cost (PSA tier fee for the graded value plus ~$20 round-trip shipping, fees as of 2026-09-26). Best case is the PSA 10 leg alone. Gem rates come from a self-selected population — collectors grade their cleanest copies — so read them as an upper bound. Raw is a blended market price, not a sale of your copy. Full method and filters on the grading index.
How to read the HGSS Black Star Promos ranking
Every HGSS Black Star Promos card listed here clears one bar: its PSA 10 price beats its raw price by more than the cost of grading it. 18 cards from the set pass. 17 of them (94%) have a gem-rate sample of at least ten graded copies in the population reports, and 9 of those keep a positive expected value once every grade outcome is weighted by how often the card actually receives it.
The order is expected profit, not the PSA 10 best case, which rewards the widest raw-to-gem gap whether the card gems one time in two or one in fifty. Here the top row, the Lugia from HGSS Black Star Promos, gems 3.5% of the time across 508 graded copies: +$5,345 is what a long run of submissions would average, $137,399 is what one lucky copy returns.
The median gem rate across the sampled HGSS Black Star Promos cards is 0.8%. Fewer than one submitted copy in a hundred came back PSA 10, and most rows here still cover raw price plus fee at PSA 9, so the PSA 9 price does most of the work. Of the 17 ranked cards, 13 still cover raw price plus fee at PSA 9, 4 need a 10 to break even and 8 lose money on expectation. 10 rest on a hundred or more graded copies.
1 card sits below the ranking with a best case only, fewer than ten graded copies. The largest best case among them is the Tropical Tidal Wave from HGSS Black Star Promos at +$8,570.
Before you submit a HGSS Black Star Promos card
Grading pays on condition. The four things every grader scores — centering, corners, edges and surface — can be checked at home before paying a fee, and a copy that is visibly off-centre or has a whitened corner will not gem whatever the population says. Those gem rates come from a self-selected population of clean copies, so a random copy does worse.
The cost column assumes a PSA submission at the tier covering the card's PSA 10 value, fees as of 2026-09-26, and raw is CardTrack's blended near-mint price, not a sale of your copy: pay more, or hold a lighter copy, and the break-even moves against you. Test a card with your own numbers in the ROI calculator, see the printings that fail the bar on the HGSS Black Star Promos card list, or see how gem-mint premiums run across the whole catalogue on the PSA premium index.