Best Surging Sparks Cards to Grade
The Surging Sparks cards worth grading, ranked by expected profit per submission — every grade outcome weighted by how often the card actually receives it — after current grading fees. The PSA 10 best case is shown on every row but does not decide the order. Top pick: Pikachu ex at an expected +$101.
Ranked by expected profit 21
| # | Card | Raw | PSA 9 | PSA 10 | Cost | Best case | Gem rate | Expected | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Expected +$101 per submission: 33.9% of 28,226 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($855), and only a PSA 10 covers the $364 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $275 | $264 | $855 | $89 | +$491 | 33.9% | +$101 | 28,226 high |
| 2 | Expected loss −$3 per submission: 34.5% of 18,961 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($456), and only a PSA 10 covers the $260 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $175 | $150 | $456 | $85 | +$196 | 34.5% | −$3 | 18,961 high |
| 3 | Expected loss −$11 per submission: 28.8% of 5,499 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($214), and only a PSA 10 covers the $95 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $13 | $34 | $214 | $82 | +$118 | 28.8% | −$11 | 5,499 high |
| 4 | Expected loss −$14 per submission: 42.8% of 21,757 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($173), and only a PSA 10 covers the $112 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $30 | $42 | $173 | $82 | +$61 | 42.8% | −$14 | 21,757 high |
| 5 | Expected loss −$15 per submission: 28.1% of 26,141 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($252), and only a PSA 10 covers the $117 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $34 | $44 | $252 | $83 | +$136 | 28.1% | −$15 | 26,141 high |
| 6 | Expected loss −$17 per submission: 33.5% of 17,525 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($200), and only a PSA 10 covers the $105 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $23 | $31 | $200 | $82 | +$95 | 33.5% | −$17 | 17,525 high |
| 7 | Expected loss −$27 per submission: 30.9% of 1,416 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($150), and only a PSA 10 covers the $89 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $8 | $23 | $150 | $81 | +$61 | 30.9% | −$27 | 1,416 high |
| 8 | Expected loss −$30 per submission: 37.7% of 14,431 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($264), and only a PSA 10 covers the $196 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $113 | $106 | $264 | $83 | +$68 | 37.7% | −$30 | 14,431 high |
| 9 | Expected loss −$31 per submission: 35.1% of 5,586 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($135), and only a PSA 10 covers the $91 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $10 | $21 | $135 | $81 | +$44 | 35.1% | −$31 | 5,586 high |
| 10 | Expected loss −$32 per submission: 42.8% of 12,895 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($95), and only a PSA 10 covers the $87 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $6 | $26 | $95 | $81 | +$8 | 42.8% | −$32 | 12,895 high |
| 11 | Expected loss −$34 per submission: 32.5% of 5,999 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($140), and only a PSA 10 covers the $95 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $14 | $24 | $140 | $81 | +$45 | 32.5% | −$34 | 5,999 high |
| 12 | Expected loss −$39 per submission: 31.6% of 7,035 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($115), and only a PSA 10 covers the $90 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $9 | $24 | $115 | $81 | +$24 | 31.6% | −$39 | 7,035 high |
| 13 | Expected loss −$40 per submission: 32.1% of 4,624 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($120), and only a PSA 10 covers the $91 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $10 | $20 | $120 | $81 | +$29 | 32.1% | −$40 | 4,624 high |
| 14 | Expected loss −$41 per submission: 38.4% of 9,600 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($130), and only a PSA 10 covers the $115 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $34 | $40 | $130 | $81 | +$15 | 38.4% | −$41 | 9,600 high |
| 15 | Expected loss −$42 per submission: 35.1% of 3,625 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($100), and only a PSA 10 covers the $90 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $9 | $20 | $100 | $81 | +$10 | 35.1% | −$42 | 3,625 high |
| 16 | Expected loss −$45 per submission: 27.3% of 2,957 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($110), and only a PSA 10 covers the $88 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $7 | $20 | $110 | $81 | +$22 | 27.3% | −$45 | 2,957 high |
| 17 | Expected loss −$45 per submission: 32.3% of 4,367 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($94), and only a PSA 10 covers the $89 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $8 | $22 | $94 | $81 | +$5 | 32.3% | −$45 | 4,367 high |
| 18 | Expected loss −$46 per submission: 29.4% of 8,077 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($106), and only a PSA 10 covers the $91 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $10 | $20 | $106 | $81 | +$15 | 29.4% | −$46 | 8,077 high |
| 19 | Expected loss −$46 per submission: 30.7% of 2,648 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($100), and only a PSA 10 covers the $90 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $9 | $20 | $100 | $81 | +$11 | 30.7% | −$46 | 2,648 high |
| 20 | Expected loss −$47 per submission: 31.1% of 3,472 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($100), and only a PSA 10 covers the $90 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $9 | $18 | $100 | $81 | +$10 | 31.1% | −$47 | 3,472 high |
| 21 | Expected loss −$47 per submission: 37.8% of 8,811 graded copies came back PSA 10 ($112), and only a PSA 10 covers the $109 you have in it — a 9 loses money. Confidence high on that sample. | $28 | $34 | $112 | $81 | +$2 | 37.8% | −$47 | 8,811 high |
Best case only — no gem-rate evidence 1
Fewer than 10 graded copies in the PSA and CGC population reports. They clear the grading cost if they gem — that is all the numbers support.
| # | Card | Raw | PSA 9 | PSA 10 | Cost | Best case | Gem rate | Expected | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | $80 | — | $372 | $84 | +$208 | — | — | none <10 |
Expected = every grade outcome weighted by its share of the card's graded population, minus the raw price and the grading cost (PSA tier fee for the graded value plus ~$20 round-trip shipping, fees as of 2026-09-26). Best case is the PSA 10 leg alone. Gem rates come from a self-selected population — collectors grade their cleanest copies — so read them as an upper bound. Raw is a blended market price, not a sale of your copy. Full method and filters on the grading index.
How to read the Surging Sparks ranking
Every Surging Sparks card listed here clears one bar: its PSA 10 price beats its raw price by more than the cost of grading it. 22 cards from the set pass. 21 of them (95%) have a gem-rate sample of at least ten graded copies in the population reports, and 1 of those keeps a positive expected value once every grade outcome is weighted by how often the card actually receives it.
The order is expected profit, not the PSA 10 best case, which rewards the widest raw-to-gem gap whether the card gems one time in two or one in fifty. Here the top row, the Pikachu ex from Surging Sparks, gems 33.9% of the time across 28,226 graded copies: +$101 is what a long run of submissions would average, $491 is what one lucky copy returns.
The median gem rate across the sampled Surging Sparks cards is 32.5%. Roughly one submitted copy in 3 came back PSA 10, and no row here covers raw price plus fee at PSA 9, so the gem rate decides whether a submission pays. Of the 21 ranked cards, 21 need a 10 to break even and 20 lose money on expectation. 21 rest on a hundred or more graded copies.
1 card sits below the ranking with a best case only, fewer than ten graded copies. The largest best case among them is the Pikachu ex from Surging Sparks at +$208.
Before you submit a Surging Sparks card
Grading pays on condition. The four things every grader scores — centering, corners, edges and surface — can be checked at home before paying a fee, and a copy that is visibly off-centre or has a whitened corner will not gem whatever the population says. Those gem rates come from a self-selected population of clean copies, so a random copy does worse.
The cost column assumes a PSA submission at the tier covering the card's PSA 10 value, fees as of 2026-09-26, and raw is CardTrack's blended near-mint price, not a sale of your copy: pay more, or hold a lighter copy, and the break-even moves against you. Test a card with your own numbers in the ROI calculator, see the printings that fail the bar on the Surging Sparks card list, or see how gem-mint premiums run across the whole catalogue on the PSA premium index.