Lugia78/124 · Fates Collide Price & Value
Market value · Near Mint
Typical copy sold $14 57 sales, all conditions
- PSA 8$773 sold · 90d · pop 37
- PSA 9$1306 sold · 90d · pop 99
- PSA 10$9883 sold · 90d · pop 48
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
Medium confidence57 sales in 90 days, but prices vary widely.
Recent Raw sales
- Sep 5, 2026eBay — Lugia (Cracked Ice Holo) Pokemon: XY - Fates Collide 78/124$9.99
- Sep 5, 2026eBay — Pokemon TCG Lugia 78/124 Rare Fates Collide XY Cracked Ice Holo Card HP/DMGDM$6.99
- Sep 5, 2026eBay — Lugia 78/124 XY Fates Collide 2016 CRACKED ICE Holo Rare Pokémon Card$11.98
- Sep 5, 2026eBay — Lugia 78/124 XY Fates Collide Cracked Ice Holo Rare Exclusive Pokemon Card DMGDM$10.00
- Sep 4, 2026eBay — Lugia - 78/124 - Cracked Ice Holo - Fates Collide - Pokemon TCG - English$18.82
- Sep 2, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lugia Fates Collide 78/124 Exclusive Cracked Ice Holo LPLP$14.99
- Sep 1, 2026eBay — Lugia 78/124 Fates Collide Cracked Ice Holo Pokemon Card - MPMP$7.04
- Aug 30, 2026eBay — 2016 Pokemon XY Fates Collide Lugia Promos Deck Exclusives Cracked Ice #78/124$16.00
By grade
- Raw$14.0058 sales
- PSA 9$2257 sales
- PSA 8$88.004 sales
- PSA 10$1,9194 sales
- Lot$7.203 sales
- CGC 8.5$13.203 sales
- TAG 8$49.832 sales
- PSA 7$44.002 sales
From 92 completed sales recorded between Sep 22, 2025 and Sep 5, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted. The range is wide because these sales span different printings and conditions — 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited copies all carry this card's name, and they trade at very different levels. Each sale above is labelled with what its listing claimed, so you can see which ones describe the same object. Treat the median as the typical copy, not the range.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 31 graded sales and 1,306,451 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
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✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lugia is a Rare Pokémon card from Fates Collide (#78, released 2016), illustrated by TOKIYA. It's a Basic Colorless-type Pokémon with 120 HP, weak to Lightning ×2. Its current blended market value is $23.24 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $988 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 43× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 6 September 2026.
Lugia price history & recent sales
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history77 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.
Demand & liquidity
Last sold $10 · Raw · 5 Sep 2026
How often each grade sells · last 90 days, all marketplaces
Is Lugia worth grading?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 11.5% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$855); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lugia is a Rare in Fates Collide — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 25 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 42 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $988.00 | $110 | +$855 | 42.5× |
| PSA 9 | $130.00 | $71 | +$35 | 5.6× |
| PSA 8 | $76.50 | $71 | −$18 | 3.3× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 589 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 11.5% | $988.00 |
| PSA 9 | 39.2% | $130.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 49.2% | $55.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — every grade, with gem rates
Only 21% of 224 PSA-graded Lugia copies are a gem-mint 10 (48 of 224) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — a lower gem rate means a Lugia 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Lugia 78/124 Rare XY - Fates Collide Pokemon NM/LPRaw · eBay$3.99
Lugia 78/124 Rare Fates Collide Pokemon Near MintRaw · eBay$4.00
Pokemon Lugia XY - Fates Collide 78/124 NMRaw · eBay$4.29
Lugia 78/124 Rare Fates Collide Pokemon Near Mint A013Raw · eBay$4.49
Lugia - 78/124 - - NM - Fates Collide - TOKIYARaw · eBay$4.99
Lugia 78/124 - Pokémon Fates Collide RegularRaw · eBay$4.99Cheapest raw copy $3.99 — 83% below our estimate of $23
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 483 · 90d | $988$840–$1,136 | |
| PSA 9pop 996 · 90d | $130$111–$150 | |
| PSA 8pop 373 · 90d | $77$65–$88 | |
| PSA 7pop 24 | $35$30–$40 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Price by printingBase vs reverse holo vs 1st edition — priced separately
Price by variant
TCGplayer market price per printing — reverse holo, 1st edition and unlimited often differ sharply.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#36 on the radarLugia is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “One of my favourite binder pages” · 104↑
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
As long as this Pokémon is your Active Pokémon, any damage done by attacks from your opponent's Active Pokémon is reduced by 20 (before applying Weakness and Resistance).
If your opponent's Active Pokémon is a Pokémon-EX, this attack does 60 more damage.
“It is said to be the guardian of the seas. It is rumored to have been seen on the night of a storm.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
It is said that it quietly spends its time deep at the bottom of the sea because its powers are too strong.
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lugia cards
There are 9 different Lugia printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Fates Collide #78 (Rare).
More from Fates Collide
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lugia (Fates Collide #78) worth?
As of 6 September 2026, Lugia from Fates Collide is worth approximately $23.24 ungraded (near-mint), and around $988 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lugia?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lugia from Fates Collide is worth around $988 — roughly 43× the raw ungraded value of $23.24.
Should I grade my Lugia?
A PSA 10 sells for about $988 versus $23.24 raw — roughly a 43× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lugia rare?
Lugia is a Rare card from Fates Collide (card #78), illustrated by TOKIYA. Its current blended market value is $23.24 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
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Lugia (Fates Collide #78) — Pokémon market value $23.24, PSA 10 $988.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/fates-collide/lugia-78<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=xy10-78" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lugia price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>