What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
Medium confidence39 sales in 90 days, but prices vary widely.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 13, 2026eBay — Lugia 78/124 XY Fates Collide Cracked Ice Holo Rare Pokemon Card$19.99
- Aug 12, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lugia Cracked Ice Holo Fates Collide 78/124 120HP$17.75
- Aug 11, 2026eBay — 2016 Pokemon XY Fates Collide Lugia Promos Deck Exclusives Cracked Ice #78/124$19.99
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lugia Fates Collide 78/124 Exclusive Cracked Ice Holo NMNM$19.99
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — Lugia - 78/124 Fates Collide (Pokemon) Cracked Ice Holo Rare - MPMP$9.48
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — The Pokemon Company Lugia 78/124 Fates Collide Exclusive Cracked Ice Holo$17.50
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lugia Fates Collide 78/124 Exclusive Cracked Ice Holo$100
- Aug 8, 2026eBay — Lugia (XY Fates Cracked Ice Holo) 78/124 Deck Exclusives Pokemon HP-DMGDM$4.99
By grade
- Raw$12.7540 sales
- PSA 9$2256 sales
- Lot$7.203 sales
- TAG 8$49.832 sales
- PSA 10$1,7752 sales
- CGC 8.5$29.402 sales
- CGC 6.5$16.102 sales
- TAG 9$1281 sale
From 66 completed sales recorded between Sep 22, 2025 and Aug 14, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted. The range is wide because these sales span different printings and conditions — 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited copies all carry this card's name, and they trade at very different levels. Each sale above is labelled with what its listing claimed, so you can see which ones describe the same object. Treat the median as the typical copy, not the range.
Grade it or not
Not enough graded evidence yet — 23 graded sales recorded.
Buy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lugia is a Rare Pokémon card from Fates Collide (#78), illustrated by TOKIYA. It's a Basic Colorless-type Pokémon with 120 HP, weak to Lightning ×2. Its current blended market value is $18.54 ungraded. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 23 August 2026.
The receipts
Price history · Raw
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Recent sold prices
No recent sold listings tracked.
Should you grade it?
Raw $18.54 → graded PSA 9 ≈ $43.20, after ~$70.42 grading fee → 2.3× the raw value.
The odds
Lugia is a Rare in Fates Collide — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 25 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 42 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 9 | $43.20 | $70 | −$46 | 2.3× |
| PSA 8 | $25.20 | $70 | −$64 | 1.4× |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Real outcome depends on the grade achieved; PSA 10 is best-case.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 12% of 589 PSA-graded Lugia copies are a gem-mint 10 (68 of 589) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Lugia 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 9pop 231 | 1 sold$43$37–$50 | |
| PSA 8pop 162 | 1 sold$25$21–$29 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Price by printingBase vs reverse holo vs 1st edition — priced separately
Price by variant
TCGplayer market price per printing — reverse holo, 1st edition and unlimited often differ sharply.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
As long as this Pokémon is your Active Pokémon, any damage done by attacks from your opponent's Active Pokémon is reduced by 20 (before applying Weakness and Resistance).
If your opponent's Active Pokémon is a Pokémon-EX, this attack does 60 more damage.
“It is said to be the guardian of the seas. It is rumored to have been seen on the night of a storm.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
It is said that it quietly spends its time deep at the bottom of the sea because its powers are too strong.
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lugia cards
There are 9 different Lugia printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Fates Collide #78 (Rare).
More from Fates Collide
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lugia (Fates Collide #78) worth?
As of 23 August 2026, Lugia from Fates Collide is worth approximately $18.54 ungraded (near-mint). Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
Is Lugia rare?
Lugia is a Rare card from Fates Collide (card #78), illustrated by TOKIYA. Its current blended market value is $18.54 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lugia (Fates Collide #78) — Pokémon market value $18.54. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/fates-collide/lugia-78<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=xy10-78" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lugia price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>