Lugia BREAK79/124 · Fates Collide Price & Value
Market value · Near Mint
Typical copy sold $20 253 sales, all conditionsPack fresh $42
- PSA 8$5510 sold · 90d · pop 350
- PSA 9$8018 sold · 90d · pop 628
- PSA 10$70010 sold · 90d · pop 524
Why prices differ
TCGplayer's figure is what sellers are asking on their marketplace, not what copies sold for — an asking price sits above a completed sale because it is the start of a negotiation, not the end of one. Our price comes from those same completed sales, adjusted to Near Mint — the median below mixes every condition together, and most copies that change hands are played rather than mint. How we weigh them →
What's your copy worth?
The top 5% of this card's sales — pack-fresh examples — sold for $36.75 or more. That's about +47% over a typical Near Mint copy.
ⓘ How do we work this out?
We take every real sale of this exact card over the last 12 months (127 sales), sort them by price, and read off the top 15% and top 5%. No multipliers, no guesses — the prices cleaner copies actually fetched.
Why cleaner copies cost more: buyers can see condition in the photos and pay for it. Listings sellers describe as pack fresh or gem mint land in this top band 1.7× more often than ordinary ones — the premium follows the card, not the hype.
Copies in this band are also the ones collectors send to grading: far more likely than a typical binder copy to be submitted at all — and to come back with the strong grade that carries the PSA prices shown on this page. That prospect is part of what buyers are paying for here.
These are read straight off this card's own completed sales — sort them by price and take the top 15% and top 5%. Whether your copy qualifies is a judgment made by looking at the card.
What this price is based on
High confidence253 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Sep 3, 2026eBay — Pokémon Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Rare Holo English Card NMNM$19.99
- Sep 2, 2026eBay — Pokemon TCG Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Holo MPMP$12.99
- Sep 2, 2026eBay — Pokémon Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Rare Holo English Card$15.75
- Sep 1, 2026eBay — LUGIA BREAK POKEMON FATES COLLIDE 79/124 BREAK RARE HOLO$19.99
- Aug 25, 2026eBay — The Pokémon Company Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Holo Rare English LP-MPMP$10.00
- Aug 24, 2026eBay — 2016 Pokémon Card Lugia BREAK 79/124 XY Fates Collide Holo$39.99
- Aug 23, 2026eBay — Lugia BREAK Holo Pokemon TCG Card 79/124 Fates Collide Rare English 150HP$20.00
- Aug 23, 2026eBay — Lugia BREAK Holo Rare Pokemon TCG Card 79/124 BREAKpoint English 150HP 2016$20.00
By grade
- Raw$20.00267 sales
- PSA 9$89.9927 sales
- PSA 10$76812 sales
- PSA 8$57.5010 sales
- CGC 8$22.254 sales
- PSA 7$50.003 sales
- CGC 9$49.003 sales
- CGC 9.5$1572 sales
From 343 completed sales recorded between May 12, 2023 and Sep 3, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted. The range is wide because these sales span different printings and conditions — 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited copies all carry this card's name, and they trade at very different levels. Each sale above is labelled with what its listing claimed, so you can see which ones describe the same object. Treat the median as the typical copy, not the range.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 71 graded sales and 1,307,527 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
Buying this card on eBay? The free CardTrack extension shows our value and a deal verdict right on the listing. Add to Chrome →
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lugia BREAK is a Rare BREAK Pokémon card from Fates Collide (#79, released 2016), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. It's a BREAK Colorless-type Pokémon with 150 HP, evolving from Lugia. Its current blended market value is $25.05 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $700 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 28× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 5 September 2026.
Lugia BREAK price history & recent sales
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history317 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.
Demand & liquidity
Last sold $20 · Raw · 3 Sep 2026
How often each grade sells · last 90 days, all marketplaces
Is Lugia BREAK worth grading?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 29.8% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$568); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lugia BREAK is a Rare in Fates Collide — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 25 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 42 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $700.00 | $107 | +$568 | 27.9× |
| PSA 9 | $80.00 | $71 | −$16 | 3.2× |
| PSA 8 | $55.00 | $71 | −$41 | 2.2× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 1,670 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 29.8% | $700.00 |
| PSA 9 | 35.8% | $80.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 34.4% | $43.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — every grade, with gem rates
Only 30% of 1,758 PSA-graded Lugia BREAK copies are a gem-mint 10 (524 of 1,758) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — a lower gem rate means a Lugia BREAK 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Pokemon TCG Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Full Art Holo Eng 2016-DMG On BackRaw · eBay$7.49
Lugia BREAK 79/124 XY - Fates Collide Rare BREAK MPRaw · eBay$8.99
Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide HoloRaw · eBay$9.00
Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide HoloRaw · eBay$10.00
Lugia BREAK 79/124 Fates Collide Holo MPRaw · eBay$10.49
Lugia BREAK 79/124 BREAK Rare Fates Collide Pokemon Holo HP GraphicsRaw · eBay$10.84Cheapest raw copy $7.49 — 70% below our estimate of $25
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 52410 · 90d | ✓ 48 cert-verified$700$700–$1,072 | |
| PSA 9pop 62818 · 90d | ✓ 46 cert-verified$80$80–$109 | |
| PSA 8pop 35010 · 90d | ✓ 18 cert-verified$55$38–$55 | |
| PSA 7pop 1423 · 90d | ✓ 6 cert-verified$33$33–$52 | |
| PSA 6pop 63 | modelled$14$14–$25 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
A typical Near Mint copy sells for $28.90. Grading-candidate copies — the cleanest 15% of sales — typically fetch $35.00 (+21%). Pack-fresh examples — the top 5% — go for about $42.40.
From 24 sales in the last 12 months. These describe the market — whether a specific copy is a grading candidate is a judgment made by looking at it.
For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $45 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
59% spreadCurrently 59% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Evolves from Lugia.
Discard 2 Energy attached to this Pokémon.
BREAK Evolution Rule: Lugia BREAK retains the attacks, Abilities, Weakness, Resistance, and Retreat Cost of its previous Evolution.
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
It is said that it quietly spends its time deep at the bottom of the sea because its powers are too strong.
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
More from Fates Collide
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lugia BREAK (Fates Collide #79) worth?
As of 5 September 2026, Lugia BREAK from Fates Collide is worth approximately $25.05 ungraded (near-mint), and around $700 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lugia BREAK?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lugia BREAK from Fates Collide is worth around $700 — roughly 28× the raw ungraded value of $25.05.
Should I grade my Lugia BREAK?
A PSA 10 sells for about $700 versus $25.05 raw — roughly a 28× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lugia BREAK rare?
Lugia BREAK is a Rare BREAK card from Fates Collide (card #79), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $25.05 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lugia BREAK (Fates Collide #79) — Pokémon market value $25.05, PSA 10 $700.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/fates-collide/lugia-break-79<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=xy10-79" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lugia BREAK price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>