Market value · ungraded
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NOT WORTH ITBased on 0 graded sales and 4,409,561 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
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✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Aqua Patch is a Rare Secret Pokémon card from Guardians Rising (#161), illustrated by Toyste Beach. It's a Item Trainer card. Its current blended market value is $7.50 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $51 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 7× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 23 August 2026.
The receipts
Price history · Raw
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Recent sold prices
No recent sold listings tracked.
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 39.7% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case −$27); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Aqua Patch is a Secret / Rainbow in Guardians Rising — the pack's hit slot lands on Secret / Rainbow 2.5% of the time, split across 24 secret / rainbow cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 965 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $50.50 | $71 | −$28 | 6.7× |
| PSA 9 | $6.29 | $70 | −$71 | 0.8× |
| PSA 8 | $5.99 | $70 | −$72 | 0.8× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 174 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 39.7% | $51.00 |
| PSA 9 | 37.9% | $6.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 22.4% | $8.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 40% of 174 PSA-graded Aqua Patch copies are a gem-mint 10 (69 of 174) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Aqua Patch 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 69 | $51$43–$58 | |
| PSA 8pop 28 | $6$5–$6 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
2% spreadCurrently 2% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Attach a Water Energy card from your discard pile to 1 of your Benched Water Pokémon.
You may play as many Item cards as you like during your turn (before your attack).
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Aqua Patch cards
There are 2 different Aqua Patch printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Guardians Rising #161 (Rare Secret).
More from Guardians Rising
Frequently asked questions
How much is Aqua Patch (Guardians Rising #161) worth?
As of 23 August 2026, Aqua Patch from Guardians Rising is worth approximately $7.50 ungraded (near-mint), and around $51 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Aqua Patch?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Aqua Patch from Guardians Rising is worth around $51 — roughly 7× the raw ungraded value of $7.50.
Should I grade my Aqua Patch?
A PSA 10 sells for about $51 versus $7.50 raw — roughly a 7× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Aqua Patch rare?
Aqua Patch is a Rare Secret card from Guardians Rising (card #161), illustrated by Toyste Beach. Its current blended market value is $7.50 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Aqua Patch (Guardians Rising #161) — Pokémon market value $7.50, PSA 10 $50.50. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/guardians-rising/aqua-patch-161<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sm2-161" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Aqua Patch price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>