Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence99 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Pokémon Lucario Shiny Rare Paldean Fates 174/091$18.50
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Lucario 174/091 Shiny Rare Paldean Fates Pokemon Holo Near MintNM$25.00
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lucario Paldean Fates Shiny Rare Holo Card 174/091 NMNM$32.00
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Lucario 174/091 Shiny Rare Paldean Fates Pokemon Holo Near MintNM$19.99
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lucario Paldean Fates Baby Shiny Rare Holo Card 174/091$27.00
- Aug 10, 2026eBay — Lucario 174/091 - Paldean Fates - Pokemon Card$29.99
- Aug 10, 2026eBay — Lucario 174/091 SV Paldean Fates Shiny Rare Holo 130 HP English Stage 1$15.00
- Aug 10, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lucario Paldean Fates Shiny Rare Holo Card 174/091$20.00
By grade
- Raw$28.13123 sales
- PSA 10$3009 sales
- PSA 9$31.007 sales
- CGC 10$32.906 sales
- PSA 8$26.372 sales
- SGC 9.5$9.991 sale
- CGC 9$21.601 sale
From 149 completed sales recorded between Dec 31, 2025 and Aug 16, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted. The range is wide because these sales span different printings and conditions — 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited copies all carry this card's name, and they trade at very different levels. Each sale above is labelled with what its listing claimed, so you can see which ones describe the same object. Treat the median as the typical copy, not the range.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 26 graded sales and 5,111,415 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lucario is a Shiny Rare Pokémon card from Paldean Fates (#174), illustrated by Shin Nagasawa. It's a Stage 1 Fighting-type Pokémon with 130 HP, evolving from Riolu, weak to Psychic ×2. Its current blended market value is $29.62 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $245 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 8× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $220.50 | #156108809 ✓ |
| 23 Jul 2026 | PSA 8 | $23.75 | #154185479 ✓ |
| 20 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $210.50 | #89713952 ✓ |
| 18 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $280.00 | #161681151 ✓ |
| 6 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $33.60 | #147174909 ✓ |
| 27 Jun 2026 | PSA 9 | $65.00 | #97190770 ✓ |
| 17 Jun 2026 | PSA 9 | $40.95 | #95807500 ✓ |
| 17 Jun 2026 | PSA 9 | $37.00 | #147103085 ✓ |
| 15 Jun 2026 | PSA 10 | $315.00 | #89161025 ✓ |
| 14 Jun 2026 | PSA 8 | $23.50 | #137140034 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 50.2% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$143); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lucario is a Rare in Paldean Fates — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 136 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 228 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $244.75 | $72 | +$143 | 8.3× |
| PSA 9 | $31.00 | $70 | −$69 | 1.0× |
| PSA 8 | $9.33 | $70 | −$90 | 0.3× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 638 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 50.2% | $245.00 |
| PSA 9 | 46.7% | $31.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 3.1% | $30.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 50% of 638 PSA-graded Lucario copies are a gem-mint 10 (320 of 638) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Lucario 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Lucario 174/091 SV: Paldean Fates HoloRaw · eBay$24.00
SV: Paldean Fates #174/091 LucarioRaw · eBay$28.80
LUCARIO 174/091 SHINY RARE PALDEAN FATES POKEMON HOLO NEAR MINTRaw · eBay$29.99
Lucario Holo Shiny Rare SV: Paldean Fates 174/091 NMRaw · eBay$29.99
Lucario 174/091 SV: Paldean Fates HoloRaw · eBay$30.00Cheapest raw copy $24.00 — 19% below our estimate of $30
Lucario 174/091 - PSA 10 SV: Paldean Fates Shiny Holo Pokémon CardPSA 10 · eBay$314.99
2024 Pokémon Paldean Fates Lucario Shiny Rare #174/091 PSA 10 GEM MINTPSA 10 · eBay$319.99
Lucario 174/091 SV: Paldean Fates Shiny Holo Pokémon Card - PSA 10PSA 10 · eBay$329.99
2024 POKEMON PAF EN-PALDEAN FATES SHINY RARE #174 LUCARIO PSA 10PSA 10 · eBay$499.99Cheapest PSA 10 $314.99 — 29% above our estimate of $245
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 320 | $245$208–$281 | |
| PSA 9pop 298 | $31$26–$36 | |
| PSA 8pop 17 | 2 sold$9$8–$11 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
5% spreadCurrently 5% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#6 on the radarLucario is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “My girlfriend and I broke up” · 2537↑
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Evolves from Riolu.
If any of your Fighting Pokémon were Knocked Out by damage from an attack during your opponent's last turn, this attack does 120 more damage.
During your next turn, this Pokémon can't use Accelerating Stab.
“It's said that no foe can remain invisible to Lucario, since it can detect auras—even those of foes it could not otherwise see.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lucario cards
There are 9 different Lucario printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Paldean Fates #174 (Shiny Rare).
More from Paldean Fates
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lucario (Paldean Fates #174) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Lucario from Paldean Fates is worth approximately $29.62 ungraded (near-mint), and around $245 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lucario?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lucario from Paldean Fates is worth around $245 — roughly 8× the raw ungraded value of $29.62.
Should I grade my Lucario?
A PSA 10 sells for about $245 versus $29.62 raw — roughly a 8× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lucario rare?
Lucario is a Shiny Rare card from Paldean Fates (card #174), illustrated by Shin Nagasawa. Its current blended market value is $29.62 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lucario (Paldean Fates #174) — Pokémon market value $29.62, PSA 10 $244.75. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/paldean-fates/lucario-174<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sv4pt5-174" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lucario price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>