Lucario174/91 · Paldean Fates Price & Value
Market value · Near Mint
What's your copy worth?
Estimated. This card has enough sales to price the top 15% but not the top 5%, so pack-fresh is projected from the gap we measure between those two tiers on cards that do — about 1.4x on vintage, 1.2x on modern. $44.59. That's about +49% over a typical Near Mint copy.
ⓘ How do we work this out?
We take every real sale of this exact card over the last 12 months (12 sales), sort them by price, and read off the top 15% and top 5%. No multipliers, no guesses — the prices cleaner copies actually fetched.
Why cleaner copies cost more: buyers can see condition in the photos and pay for it. Listings sellers describe as pack fresh or gem mint land in this top band 1.7× more often than ordinary ones — the premium follows the card, not the hype.
Copies in this band are also the ones collectors send to grading: far more likely than a typical binder copy to be submitted at all — and to come back with the strong grade that carries the PSA prices shown on this page. That prospect is part of what buyers are paying for here.
These are read straight off this card's own completed sales — sort them by price and take the top 15% and top 5%. Whether your copy qualifies is a judgment made by looking at the card.
What this price is based on
High confidence94 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Sep 2, 2026eBay — Lucario 174/091 Shiny Rare Paldean Fates Pokemon Holo HPHP$10.00
- Sep 1, 2026eBay — Lucario Holo SV: Paldean Fates 174/091 NM PokemonNM$28.95
- Aug 27, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lucario 174/091 SV Paldean Fates Shiny Rare Holo EN$29.99
- Aug 27, 2026eBay — Lucario Holo 174/091 Shiny Rare Paldean Fates Pokemon NMNM$29.99
- Aug 27, 2026eBay — Lucario Baby Shiny Pokemon Card English 174/091 Paldean Fates NMNM$29.00
- Aug 27, 2026eBay — Lucario Holo Shiny Rare SV: Paldean Fates 174/091 NM PokemonNM$25.00
- Aug 26, 2026eBay — Pokemon Cards Lucario 174/091 Holo Paldean Fates Shiny Rare NM *1NM$33.97
- Aug 25, 2026eBay — The Pokémon Company Lucario 174/091 SV Paldean Fates Holo Shiny Rare Eng$26.00
By grade
- Raw$28.10136 sales
- PSA 10$30011 sales
- PSA 9$31.008 sales
- CGC 10$43.007 sales
- PSA 8$26.372 sales
- CGC 9$16.802 sales
- SGC 9.5$9.991 sale
From 167 completed sales recorded between Dec 31, 2025 and Sep 3, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted. The range is wide because these sales span different printings and conditions — 1st Edition, Shadowless and Unlimited copies all carry this card's name, and they trade at very different levels. Each sale above is labelled with what its listing claimed, so you can see which ones describe the same object. Treat the median as the typical copy, not the range.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 31 graded sales and 5,111,524 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
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✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lucario is a Shiny Rare Pokémon card from Paldean Fates (#174, released 2024), illustrated by Shin Nagasawa. It's a Stage 1 Fighting-type Pokémon with 130 HP, evolving from Riolu, weak to Psychic ×2. Its current blended market value is $29.85 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $308 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 10× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 4 September 2026.
Lucario price history & recent sales
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history126 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.
Demand & liquidity
Last sold $203 · PSA 10 · 3 Sep 2026
How often each grade sells · last 90 days, all marketplaces
Is Lucario worth grading?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 50.2% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$205); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lucario is a Rare in Paldean Fates — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 136 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 228 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $307.50 | $73 | +$205 | 10.3× |
| PSA 9 | $29.00 | $70 | −$71 | 1.0× |
| PSA 8 | $26.37 | $70 | −$74 | 0.9× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 638 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 50.2% | $308.00 |
| PSA 9 | 46.7% | $29.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 3.1% | $27.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — every grade, with gem rates
Only 48% of 685 PSA-graded Lucario copies are a gem-mint 10 (332 of 685) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — a lower gem rate means a Lucario 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Pokemon TCG Lucario 174/091 Shiny Rare Holo English SV: Paldean FatesRaw · eBay$20.00
Pokemon Lucario 174/091 SV: Paldean Fates Holo NMRaw · eBay$20.49
The Pokémon Company Lucario 174/091 SV Paldean Fates Shiny Rare Holo 130 HPRaw · eBay$22.99
Paldean Fates Baby Shiny Lucario #174/091 Near Mint/Mint 2024Raw · eBay$23.00
Lucario 174/091 Sv: Paldean Fates Holo Baby Shiny NMRaw · eBay$23.69
Lucario 174/091 SV Paldean Fates Baby Shiny RareRaw · eBay$24.00Cheapest raw copy $20.00 — 33% below our estimate of $30
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 332 | $308$261–$354 | |
| PSA 8pop 24 | $26$22–$30 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
A typical Near Mint copy sells for $27.30. Grading-candidate copies — the cleanest 15% of sales — typically fetch $33.70 (+23%). Pack-fresh examples — the top 5% — go for about $40.78.
From 12 sales in the last 12 months. These describe the market — whether a specific copy is a grading candidate is a judgment made by looking at it.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
1% spreadCurrently 1% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#12 on the radarLucario is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “Mega Lucario results at worlds” · 46↑
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Evolves from Riolu.
If any of your Fighting Pokémon were Knocked Out by damage from an attack during your opponent's last turn, this attack does 120 more damage.
During your next turn, this Pokémon can't use Accelerating Stab.
“It's said that no foe can remain invisible to Lucario, since it can detect auras—even those of foes it could not otherwise see.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lucario cards
There are 9 different Lucario printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Paldean Fates #174 (Shiny Rare).
More from Paldean Fates
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lucario (Paldean Fates #174) worth?
As of 4 September 2026, Lucario from Paldean Fates is worth approximately $29.85 ungraded (near-mint), and around $308 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lucario?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lucario from Paldean Fates is worth around $308 — roughly 10× the raw ungraded value of $29.85.
Should I grade my Lucario?
A PSA 10 sells for about $308 versus $29.85 raw — roughly a 10× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lucario rare?
Lucario is a Shiny Rare card from Paldean Fates (card #174), illustrated by Shin Nagasawa. Its current blended market value is $29.85 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lucario (Paldean Fates #174) — Pokémon market value $29.85, PSA 10 $307.50. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/paldean-fates/lucario-174<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sv4pt5-174" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lucario price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>