Mega Greninja ex
Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence137 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 17, 2026eBay — 2026 Chaos Rising Mega Greninja EX SIR #116/86$205
- Aug 17, 2026eBay — Pokémon Mega Greninja ex 116/086 SIR ME04 Chaos Rising Special Illustration$229
- Aug 17, 2026eBay — Mega Greninja EX 116/086 Chaos Rising English 350 HP$200
- Aug 17, 2026eBay — Mega Greninja ex 116/086 – NM | SIR | English | Chaos Rising | Pokémon TCGNM$210
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Pokemon Mega Greninja EX SIR 116/086 (READ DESCRIPTION) Chaos Rising$250
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — 2026 Pokemon Mega Evolution Chaos Rising #116/086 Mega Greninja ex SIR$214
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Mega Greninja EX SIR 116/086 Pokémon TCG Chaos Rising English$217
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — 2026 Pokémon Mega Greninja ex 116/086 SIR Chaos Rising English Holo NMNM$300
By grade
- Raw$221137 sales
- PSA 10$65067 sales
- CGC 10$45023 sales
- PSA 9$25011 sales
- CGC 9$1805 sales
- ACE 10$2984 sales
- BGS 9$2453 sales
- TAG 10$7502 sales
From 258 completed sales recorded between Jun 19, 2026 and Aug 17, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 120 graded sales and 5,110,986 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Mega Greninja ex is a Special Illustration Rare Pokémon card from Chaos Rising (#116), illustrated by Susumu Maeya. It's a Stage 2 MEGA ex Water-type Pokémon with 350 HP, evolving from Frogadier, weak to Lightning ×2. Its current blended market value is $218.48 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $675 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 3× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
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Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $580.00 | #164506052 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $551.00 | #164310368 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $555.00 | #163002187 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $555.00 | #165478697 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $560.00 | #165390636 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $545.00 | #163387765 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $450.00 | #162434057 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $260.00 | #162377324 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $210.27 | #162924798 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $206.66 | #163107485 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 81.3% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$370); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Mega Greninja ex is a Secret / Rainbow in Chaos Rising — the pack's hit slot lands on Secret / Rainbow 2.5% of the time, split across 7 secret / rainbow cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 281 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $675.00 | $87 | +$370 | 3.1× |
| PSA 9 | $249.00 | $72 | −$42 | 1.1× |
| PSA 8 | $201.00 | $72 | −$89 | 0.9× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 209 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 81.3% | $675.00 |
| PSA 9 | 14.4% | $249.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 4.3% | $218.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 81% of 209 PSA-graded Mega Greninja ex copies are a gem-mint 10 (170 of 209) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Mega Greninja ex 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 170 | ✓ 352 cert-verified$675 | |
| PSA 9pop 30 | ✓ 79 cert-verified$249 | |
| PSA 8pop 3 | ✓ 7 cert-verified$201 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
7% spreadCurrently 7% cheaper on TCGplayer than PriceCharting. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#9 on the radarGreninja is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “30TH ANNIVERSARY LIKELY TONIGHT ON TARGET Midnight pst , 3am EST” · 141↑
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Evolves from Frogadier.
Once during your turn, if this Pokémon is in the Active Spot, you may discard a Basic Water Energy card from your hand in order to use this Ability. Place 6 damage counters on 1 of your opponent's Pokémon.
You may put a Water Energy attached to this Pokémon into your hand and have this attack do 80 more damage.
Mega Evolution ex Rule: When your Mega Evolution Pokémon ex is Knocked Out, your opponent takes 3 Prize cards.
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Mega Greninja ex cards
There are 4 different Mega Greninja ex printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Chaos Rising #116 (Special Illustration Rare).
More from Chaos Rising
Frequently asked questions
How much is Mega Greninja ex (Chaos Rising #116) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Mega Greninja ex from Chaos Rising is worth approximately $218.48 ungraded (near-mint), and around $675 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Mega Greninja ex?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Mega Greninja ex from Chaos Rising is worth around $675 — roughly 3× the raw ungraded value of $218.48.
Should I grade my Mega Greninja ex?
A PSA 10 sells for about $675 versus $218.48 raw — roughly a 3× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Mega Greninja ex rare?
Mega Greninja ex is a Special Illustration Rare card from Chaos Rising (card #116), illustrated by Susumu Maeya. Its current blended market value is $218.48 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Mega Greninja ex (Chaos Rising #116) — Pokémon market value $218.48, PSA 10 $675.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/chaos-rising/mega-greninja-ex-116<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=me4-116" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Mega Greninja ex price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>