Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
Low confidenceOnly 1 sale in the last 90 days.
Recent PSA 10 sales
By grade
- PSA 10$3882 sales
- CGC 9$34.902 sales
- PSA 9$65.001 sale
- CGC 10$91.201 sale
From 6 completed sales recorded between Apr 13, 2026 and Jul 22, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
CLOSE CALLBased on 6 graded sales and 5,114,989 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Marill is a Illustration Rare Pokémon card from Paldea Evolved (#204), illustrated by Atsuya Uki. It's a Basic Water-type Pokémon with 70 HP, weak to Lightning ×2. Its current blended market value is $56.94 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $395 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 7× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 7 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $380.00 | #123770103 ✓ |
| 28 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $77.99 | #83662878 ✓ |
| 28 Jul 2026 | PSA 8 | $39.16 | #127960596 ✓ |
| 27 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $42.00 | #160772987 ✓ |
| 25 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $475.00 | #102065807 ✓ |
| 25 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $60.00 | #126767034 ✓ |
| 20 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $450.00 | #103109639 ✓ |
| 19 Jul 2026 | PSA 8 | $49.99 | #102586013 ✓ |
| 18 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $65.00 | #124296037 ✓ |
| 17 Jul 2026 | PSA 10 | $425.00 | #146222401 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 16.6% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$264); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Marill is a Ultra Rare in Paldea Evolved — the pack's hit slot lands on Ultra Rare 10% of the time, split across 62 ultra rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 623 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $395.00 | $74 | +$264 | 6.9× |
| PSA 9 | $57.58 | $71 | −$70 | 1.0× |
| PSA 8 | $48.00 | $70 | −$79 | 0.8× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 4,215 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 16.6% | $395.00 |
| PSA 9 | 49.7% | $58.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 33.7% | $57.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 17% of 4,215 PSA-graded Marill copies are a gem-mint 10 (700 of 4,215) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Marill 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Marill 204/193 Paldea Evolved Illustration Rare Full Art HoloRaw · eBay$45.00
Pokémon TCG Marill Paldea Evolved 204/193 Illustration Rare CardRaw · eBay$47.00
Marill 204/193 Paldea Evolved Illustration Rare Full Art HoloRaw · eBay$47.00
Pokemon TCG Marill 204/193 Paldea Evolved Illustration Rare Full Art Holo ENRaw · eBay$49.99Cheapest raw copy $45.00 — 21% below our estimate of $57
PSA 10 Marill 204/193 Sv02: Paldea Evolved Illustration RarePSA 10 · eBay$500.00
PSA 10 Marill Illustration Rare 204/193 Paldea Evolved Holo Pokémon 2023PSA 10 · eBay$545.99
Marill Paldea Evolved 204/193 Illustration Rare 2023 PSA 10PSA 10 · eBay$555.00
Pokemon 2023 Marill 204/193 Illustration Rare Paldea Evolved GEM MINT PSA 10PSA 10 · eBay$599.99
2023 POKEMON PAL EN-PALDEA EVOLVED ILLUSTRATION RARE #204 MARILL PSA 10PSA 10 · eBay$650.00Cheapest PSA 10 $500.00 — 27% above our estimate of $395
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 700 | ✓ 45 cert-verified$395$295–$399 | |
| PSA 9pop 2,093 | $58$49–$66 | |
| PSA 8pop 1,116 | $48$41–$55 | |
| PSA 7pop 214 | $16$11–$18 | |
| PSA 6pop 56 | $10$9–$10 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
138% spreadCurrently 138% cheaper on Cardmarket than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🇪🇺 Cardmarket price · Europe
58% cheaper than the USCard textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Heal 20 damage from this Pokémon.
“The fur on its body naturally repels water. It can stay dry even when it plays in the water.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Marill cards
There are 9 different Marill printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Paldea Evolved #204 (Illustration Rare).
More from Paldea Evolved
Frequently asked questions
How much is Marill (Paldea Evolved #204) worth?
As of 7 August 2026, Marill from Paldea Evolved is worth approximately $56.94 ungraded (near-mint), and around $395 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Marill?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Marill from Paldea Evolved is worth around $395 — roughly 7× the raw ungraded value of $56.94.
Should I grade my Marill?
A PSA 10 sells for about $395 versus $56.94 raw — roughly a 7× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Marill rare?
Marill is a Illustration Rare card from Paldea Evolved (card #204), illustrated by Atsuya Uki. Its current blended market value is $56.94 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Marill (Paldea Evolved #204) — Pokémon market value $56.94, PSA 10 $395.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/paldea-evolved/marill-204<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sv2-204" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Marill price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>