Market value · ungraded
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NOT WORTH ITBased on 0 graded sales and 5,110,777 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
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✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Smoliv is a Shiny Rare Pokémon card from Paldean Fates (#102), illustrated by otumami. It's a Basic Grass-type Pokémon with 60 HP, weak to Fire ×2. Its current blended market value is $4.86 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $72 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 15× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Price history · Raw
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Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | PSA 9 | $30.00 | #131242146 ✓ |
| 3 May 2026 | PSA 9 | $16.50 | #143878024 ✓ |
| 8 Apr 2026 | PSA 10 | $75.00 | #148273332 ✓ |
| 10 Jan 2026 | PSA 10 | $70.00 | #125835005 ✓ |
| 30 Nov 2025 | PSA 9 | $34.99 | #112848742 ✓ |
| 24 Oct 2025 | PSA 9 | $22.49 | #109657011 ✓ |
| 6 Oct 2025 | PSA 9 | $9.50 | #102324768 ✓ |
| 4 Oct 2025 | PSA 10 | $125.00 | #91507702 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2025 | PSA 9 | $18.27 | #115196834 ✓ |
| 8 Jul 2025 | PSA 10 | $79.99 | #98974912 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 53.8% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case −$3); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Smoliv is a Rare in Paldean Fates — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 136 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 228 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $72.20 | $71 | −$3 | 14.9× |
| PSA 9 | $30.00 | $70 | −$45 | 6.2× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 80 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 53.8% | $72.00 |
| PSA 9 | 41.3% | $30.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 5% | $5.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 54% of 80 PSA-graded Smoliv copies are a gem-mint 10 (43 of 80) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Smoliv 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 43 | $72$25–$80 | |
| PSA 9pop 33 | ✓ 12 cert-verified$30$22–$30 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
23% spreadCurrently 23% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Heal 30 damage from 1 of your Pokémon.
“It protects itself from enemies by emitting oil from the fruit on its head. This oil is bitter and astringent enough to make someone flinch.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Smoliv cards
There are 6 different Smoliv printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Paldean Fates #102 (Shiny Rare).
More from Paldean Fates
Frequently asked questions
How much is Smoliv (Paldean Fates #102) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Smoliv from Paldean Fates is worth approximately $4.86 ungraded (near-mint), and around $72 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Smoliv?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Smoliv from Paldean Fates is worth around $72 — roughly 15× the raw ungraded value of $4.86.
Should I grade my Smoliv?
A PSA 10 sells for about $72 versus $4.86 raw — roughly a 15× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Smoliv rare?
Smoliv is a Shiny Rare card from Paldean Fates (card #102), illustrated by otumami. Its current blended market value is $4.86 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Smoliv (Paldean Fates #102) — Pokémon market value $4.86, PSA 10 $72.20. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/paldean-fates/smoliv-102<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sv4pt5-102" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Smoliv price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>