Heat Factory ◇
Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
Low confidenceOnly 0 sales in the last 90 days.
Recent PSA 10 sales
- May 18, 2026Fanatics$50.40
By grade
- PSA 10$50.401 sale
- CGC 8.5$6.001 sale
From 2 completed sales recorded between May 18, 2026 and Jul 27, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
NOT WORTH ITBased on 2 graded sales and 4,409,561 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Heat Factory ◇ is a Rare Prism Star Pokémon card from Lost Thunder (#178), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. It's a Stadium Prism Star Trainer card. Its current blended market value is $1.29 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $50 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 39× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Price history · Raw
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Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | PSA 9 | $45.00 | #123957533 ✓ |
| 18 May 2026 | PSA 10 | $50.40 | #43981270 ✓ |
| 7 Jul 2025 | PSA 8 | $6.50 | #114197054 ✓ |
| 3 Jun 2025 | PSA 7 | $11.49 | #97851636 ✓ |
| 7 Dec 2022 | PSA 9 | $13.52 | #57991602 ✓ |
| 19 Nov 2020 | PSA 10 | $45.00 | #43447146 ✓ |
| 8 Oct 2020 | PSA 9 | $12.50 | #43317455 ✓ |
| 20 Sep 2020 | PSA 10 | $18.26 | #43447146 ✓ |
| 30 Apr 2020 | PSA 10 | $19.86 | #44497689 ✓ |
| 8 Nov 2019 | PSA 10 | $35.00 | #43447146 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 12.7% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case −$21); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Heat Factory ◇ is a Secret / Rainbow in Lost Thunder — the pack's hit slot lands on Secret / Rainbow 2.5% of the time, split across 29 secret / rainbow cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 1,166 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $50.40 | $70 | −$21 | 39.1× |
| PSA 8 | $7.00 | $70 | −$64 | 5.4× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 55 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 12.7% | $50.00 |
| PSA 9 | 47.3% | $20.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 40% | $1.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 13% of 55 PSA-graded Heat Factory ◇ copies are a gem-mint 10 (7 of 55) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Heat Factory ◇ 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 7 | 1 sold$50$43–$58 | |
| PSA 8pop 13 | $7$7–$7 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Once during each player's turn, that player may discard a Fire Energy card from their hand. If they do, they draw 3 cards.
Whenever any player plays an Item or Supporter card from their hand, prevent all effects of that card done to this Stadium card.
This card stays in play when you play it. Discard this card if another Stadium card comes into play. If another card with the same name is in play, you can't play this card.
◇ (Prism Star) Rule: You can't have more than 1 ◇ card with the same name in your deck. If a ◇ card would go to the discard pile, put it in the Lost Zone instead.
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
More from Lost Thunder
Frequently asked questions
How much is Heat Factory ◇ (Lost Thunder #178) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Heat Factory ◇ from Lost Thunder is worth approximately $1.29 ungraded (near-mint), and around $50 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Heat Factory ◇?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Heat Factory ◇ from Lost Thunder is worth around $50 — roughly 39× the raw ungraded value of $1.29.
Should I grade my Heat Factory ◇?
A PSA 10 sells for about $50 versus $1.29 raw — roughly a 39× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Heat Factory ◇ rare?
Heat Factory ◇ is a Rare Prism Star card from Lost Thunder (card #178), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $1.29 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Heat Factory ◇ (Lost Thunder #178) — Pokémon market value $1.29, PSA 10 $50.40. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/lost-thunder/heat-factory-178<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=sm8-178" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Heat Factory ◇ price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>