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Check your printing4 different Arctibax printings exist — is this your card? Paldean Fates #129
Arctibax Paldean Fates #129 Pokémon card
Shiny Rare

Arctibax

Paldean Fates · 129/91 · Illustrated by Kouki Saitou
90 HPWaterPokémonStage 1

Market value · ungraded

$3.84 1.3% · 30d
Confidencehigh
Range$4$4
Cert-verified10 PSA sales
Sold prices, not asking. TCGplayer. Updated 20 August 2026. 2 sources agree within 4%. Estimate, not an appraisalhow we price →

What's your copy worth?

What's your copy worth?
Not sure which condition? Grade it from a photo
Estimated value · Near Mint
$3.84

What this price is based on

Medium confidence

3 sales in 90 days — enough for a guide, not a guarantee.

Median · CGC 10$27.804 sales
Trimmed mean$28.43outliers removed
Range$25.00$29.70lowest to highest sale
Sales rate0.5/mo4 recorded

Recent CGC 10 sales

From 4 completed sales recorded between Dec 16, 2025 and Jul 20, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.

Grade it or not

NOT WORTH IT

Based on 4 graded sales and 5,110,777 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.

See the numbers — Trader plan and above

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Is it worth it?

An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.

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Arctibax is a Shiny Rare Pokémon card from Paldean Fates (#129), illustrated by Kouki Saitou. It's a Stage 1 Water-type Pokémon with 90 HP, evolving from Frigibax, weak to Metal ×2. Its current blended market value is $3.84 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $175 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 46× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.

Prices last updated 20 August 2026.

The receipts

Price history · Raw

1 Sept 202520 Aug 2026
Latest
$3.84
Period high
$4.16
Period low
$3.08
Change
7.7%
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Verified sales history10 in 90 daysreal completed listings

DateGradePriceCert
11 Aug 2026PSA 10$175.00#98860622
15 Jul 2026PSA 9$24.72#158509659
22 Jun 2026PSA 9$23.83#88200988
19 Feb 2026PSA 7$13.50#140925823
26 Jan 2026PSA 10$50.00#136576899
22 Jan 2026PSA 10$61.00#138538311
14 Sep 2025PSA 10$13.05#91139255
8 Sep 2025PSA 9$13.20#89953316
8 Sep 2025PSA 9$27.20#119262032
3 Sep 2025PSA 10$65.00#88059693

Should you grade it?

+$19

Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 47.8% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$99); most land at PSA 9 or below.

Gem rate (est.)47.8%
Expected return+$19
PSA 10 best case+$99
Break-evenPSA 10+
VerdictWorth grading

The odds

Arctibax is a Rare in Paldean Fates — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 59.7% of the time, split across 136 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 228 packs.

Rare59.7%136 cards
PSA 10 (gem mint)47.8%43 of 90
PSA 944.4%40 of 90
PSA graded so far90
Gem Mint 1043
Total graded90

Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.

Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
Target gradeEst. valueGrading feeNet vs rawMultiple
PSA 10$175.00$72+$9945.6×
PSA 9$24.72$70$496.4×

⚖️ Risk-adjusted return

Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 90 PSA-graded copies:

Likely outcomeChanceValue
PSA 1047.8%$175.00
PSA 944.4%$25.00
PSA ≤87.8%$4.00

Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.

Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates

Only 48% of 90 PSA-graded Arctibax copies are a gem-mint 10 (43 of 90) — the rest grade lower.

PSA90 gradedPSA 10 · 43 · 48% gem
1043
940
85
72
CGC170 gradedCGC 10 · 98 · 58% gem
1098
9.512
938
8.516
84

Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Arctibax 10 is harder to pull.

Copies for sale right now

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All grades & conditions

Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
Graded prices
Ungraded (raw)$3.99
PSA graded price estimates by grade
GradeRelative valuePrice
PSA 10pop 43✓ 9 cert-verified$175$17$175
PSA 9pop 40$25$21$28
PSA 7pop 2$2$2$2
“Sold” = median of real recent sold listings at that grade (eBay or Fanatics Collect — hover a badge to see which). Other figures are blended marketplace estimates. Confidence reflects source backing and price spread — not PSA-official values.
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
Raw price by condition
Holofoil · live market via TCGplayer
NMNear Mint$3.84
LPLightly Played$3.25
MPModerately Played$2.54
HPHeavily Played$2.02
DMGDamaged$1.51
7-day 2.6%
30-day 3.6%
90-day 12.2%
All-time high$4
All-time low$3
What NM / LP / MP actually mean — and how much they cost
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz

Cross-market prices

4% spread
TCGplayer · cheapest$4
PriceCharting · dearest$4

Currently 4% cheaper on TCGplayer than PriceCharting. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.

Market signal

Momentum · 30dFlat +1%
Cross-marketMarkets agree 4% gap

Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.

Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat

Evolves from Frigibax.

Sharp Fin40
Water · Colorless
Frost Smash80
Water · Water · Colorless
Weakness Metal ×2Retreat 2

Arctibax freezes the air around it, protecting its face with an ice mask and turning its dorsal fin into a blade of ice.

About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Ice Fin PokémonGEN IXFrigibaxArctibaxBaxcalibur

Arctibax freezes the air around it, protecting its face with an ice mask and turning its dorsal fin into a blade of ice.

Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Number#129
RarityShiny Rare
SupertypePokémon
SubtypesStage 1
TypeWater
HP90
Evolves fromFrigibax
WeaknessMetal ×2
Retreat cost2
National Pokédex#997
Card IDsv4pt5-129
SourceAggregated marketplaces

Other Arctibax cards

There are 4 different Arctibax printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Paldean Fates #129 (Shiny Rare).

More from Paldean Fates

Frequently asked questions

How much is Arctibax (Paldean Fates #129) worth?

As of 20 August 2026, Arctibax from Paldean Fates is worth approximately $3.84 ungraded (near-mint), and around $175 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.

What is the PSA 10 price for Arctibax?

A PSA 10 (gem mint) Arctibax from Paldean Fates is worth around $175 — roughly 46× the raw ungraded value of $3.84.

Should I grade my Arctibax?

A PSA 10 sells for about $175 versus $3.84 raw — roughly a 46× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.

Is Arctibax rare?

Arctibax is a Shiny Rare card from Paldean Fates (card #129), illustrated by Kouki Saitou. Its current blended market value is $3.84 ungraded.

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Citation
Arctibax (Paldean Fates #129) — Pokémon market value $3.84, PSA 10 $175.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/paldean-fates/arctibax-129
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