Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence46 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
What each version actually sells for
Every figure is the median of real completed sales whose listing claimed that printing and condition — not a percentage of the headline price. A dash means we haven't seen enough sales of that exact version to publish one.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Pokemon Ponyta (Shiny) SH11 Arceus Reverse Holo Shiny Holo Rare Card 2009$200
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Ponyta (Shiny) Reverse Holofoil Shiny Holo Rare AR SH11 MPMP$150
- Aug 16, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Ponyta Shiny Reverse Holo SH11 Arceus$160
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — Pokemon TCG Ponyta SH11 Arceus Shiny Reverse Holo Rare Eng 60 HP Blue Fire$165
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — Ponyta (Shiny) - SH11 - Arceus Reverse Shiny Holo - Pokemon TCG - VLP$215
- Aug 9, 2026eBay — PONYTA LV.17 SH11 REVERSE POKEMON 2009 ARCEUS REVERSE HOLO EN$63.49
- Aug 7, 2026eBay — Ponyta (Shiny) SH11 Arceus Reverse Holo Pokemon Card *OFFERS WELCOME*$160
- Aug 7, 2026eBay — Ponyta (Shiny) SH11 Arceus Reverse Holo Pokémon TCG Card English MPMP$97.00
By grade
- Raw$16051 sales
- PSA 8$3708 sales
- PSA 9$1,1004 sales
- PSA 8.5$5322 sales
- PSA 5$1562 sales
- CGC 9$3682 sales
- PSA 7$2051 sale
- CGC 8.5$2801 sale
From 73 completed sales recorded between May 2, 2026 and Aug 16, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 22 graded sales and 1,306,429 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Ponyta is a Rare Pokémon card from Arceus (#SH11), illustrated by Kanako Eo. It's a Basic Fire-type Pokémon with 60 HP, weak to Water +10. Its current blended market value is $194.77 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $5,500 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 28× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history19 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.
Demand & liquidity
Last sold $286 · CGC 9 · 14 Jun 2026
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 3.5% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$4,830); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Ponyta is a Rare in Arceus — the pack's hit slot lands on Rare 67% of the time, split across 32 rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 48 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $5,500.00 | $475 | +$4,830 | 28.2× |
| PSA 9 | $900.00 | $89 | +$616 | 4.6× |
| PSA 8 | $300.00 | $73 | +$32 | 1.5× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 568 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 3.5% | $5,500.00 |
| PSA 9 | 15.8% | $900.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 80.6% | $195.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 4% of 568 PSA-graded Ponyta copies are a gem-mint 10 (20 of 568) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Ponyta 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 20 | 2 sold$5,500$4,675–$6,325 | |
| PSA 9pop 90 | ✓ 12 cert-verified$900$710–$900 | |
| PSA 8pop 178 | ✓ 19 cert-verified$300$260–$350 | |
| PSA 7pop 125 | ✓ 5 cert-verified$225 | |
| PSA 6pop 92 | ✓ 7 cert-verified$96$96–$136 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
For context: a graded PSA 5 slab of this card sells for about $160 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
30% spreadCurrently 30% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
As long as Ponyta has any Energy attached to it, Ponyta has no Weakness.
Discard all Fire Energy attached to Ponyta.
“As a newborn, it can barely stand. However, through galloping, its legs are made tougher and faster.”
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Ponyta cards
There are 9 different Ponyta printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Arceus #SH11 (Rare).
More from Arceus
Frequently asked questions
How much is Ponyta (Arceus #SH11) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Ponyta from Arceus is worth approximately $194.77 ungraded (near-mint), and around $5,500 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Ponyta?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Ponyta from Arceus is worth around $5,500 — roughly 28× the raw ungraded value of $194.77.
Should I grade my Ponyta?
A PSA 10 sells for about $5,500 versus $194.77 raw — roughly a 28× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Ponyta rare?
Ponyta is a Rare card from Arceus (card #SH11), illustrated by Kanako Eo. Its current blended market value is $194.77 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Ponyta (Arceus #SH11) — Pokémon market value $194.77, PSA 10 $5500.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/arceus/ponyta-sh11<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=pl4-SH11" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Ponyta price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>