Lillie's Determination
Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence154 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — 2025 Pokemon Lillie's Determination 169/132 Ultra Rare Mega Evolution Holo NMNM$19.99
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 169/132 Ultra Rare Mega Evolution Pokemon HOLO NMNM$19.99
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — Pokemon Lillie's Determination 169/132 Me01: Mega Evolution Holo$14.99
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 169/132 Ultra Rare Mega Evolution Pokemon Near MintNM$28.99
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokemon Lillie's Determination 169/132 Mega Evolutions Near MintNM$18.50
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — The Pokémon Company Lillie's Determination 169/132 Mega Evolution UR Holo EN$19.95
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lillie's Determination Trainer Card Holo Rare 169/132$19.95
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokemon Lillie's Determination (169/205) Mega Evolution NM HOLONM$22.95
By grade
- Raw$19.99159 sales
- PSA 10$60.0042 sales
- PSA 9$24.0029 sales
- CGC 10$33.6025 sales
- PSA 8$18.638 sales
- CGC 9$13.207 sales
- TAG 10$69.995 sales
- CGC 9.5$15.603 sales
From 293 completed sales recorded between Dec 28, 2025 and Aug 15, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
NOT WORTH ITBased on 131 graded sales and 5,117,720 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lillie's Determination is a Ultra Rare Pokémon card from Mega Evolution (#169), illustrated by Atsushi Furusawa. It's a Supporter Trainer card. Its current blended market value is $21.96 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $65 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 3× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
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Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $43.87 | #150388906 ✓ |
| 14 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $75.99 | #161504381 ✓ |
| 13 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $61.00 | #157236004 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $53.00 | #159730107 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $51.00 | #166933033 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $62.00 | #168025655 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $34.79 | #133390337 ✓ |
| 7 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $26.00 | #152831146 ✓ |
| 7 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $32.00 | #135948189 ✓ |
| 7 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $29.64 | #153093670 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 48.4% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case −$28); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lillie's Determination is a Ultra Rare in Mega Evolution — the pack's hit slot lands on Ultra Rare 10% of the time, split across 44 ultra rare cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 442 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $64.99 | $71 | −$28 | 3.0× |
| PSA 9 | $21.50 | $70 | −$71 | 1.0× |
| PSA 8 | $17.67 | $70 | −$74 | 0.8× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 6,947 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 48.4% | $65.00 |
| PSA 9 | 39.1% | $22.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 12.6% | $22.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 48% of 6,947 PSA-graded Lillie's Determination copies are a gem-mint 10 (3,360 of 6,947) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Lillie's Determination 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 3,360 | $65$55–$75 | |
| PSA 8pop 651 | 3 sold$18$15–$20 | |
| PSA 6pop 68 | $14$14–$14 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $24 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
5% spreadCurrently 5% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
Shuffle your hand into your deck. Then, draw 6 cards. If you have exactly 6 Prize cards remaining, draw 8 cards instead.
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Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lillie's Determination cards
There are 4 different Lillie's Determination printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Mega Evolution #169 (Ultra Rare).
More from Mega Evolution
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #169) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution is worth approximately $21.96 ungraded (near-mint), and around $65 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lillie's Determination?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution is worth around $65 — roughly 3× the raw ungraded value of $21.96.
Should I grade my Lillie's Determination?
A PSA 10 sells for about $65 versus $21.96 raw — roughly a 3× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lillie's Determination rare?
Lillie's Determination is a Ultra Rare card from Mega Evolution (card #169), illustrated by Atsushi Furusawa. Its current blended market value is $21.96 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #169) — Pokémon market value $21.96, PSA 10 $64.99. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/mega-evolution/lillie-s-determination-169<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=me1-169" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lillie's Determination price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>