Lillie's Determination
Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence73 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Lillie's Determination Mega Evolution 184/132 SAR$57.10
- Aug 15, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 184/132 - Pokemon Mega Evolution$50.00
- Aug 14, 2026eBay — Pokémon Mega Evolution Lillie's Determination 184$77.92
- Aug 12, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 184/132 Pokemon Mega Evolution Holo SIR$60.00
- Aug 11, 2026eBay — 2025 POKEMON MEG EN-MEGA EVOLUTION #184 LILLIE'S DETERMINATION NMNM$55.00
- Aug 8, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 184/132 SIR holo Pokemon TCG Mega Evolution - NEAR MINT!NM$59.84
- Aug 7, 2026eBay — LILLIE'S DETERMINATION 184/132 MEGA EVOLUTION POKEMON HOLO NMNM$65.00
- Aug 7, 2026eBay — Lillie's Determination 184/132 - Pokemon Mega Evolution - SIR (NM)NM$70.54
By grade
- PSA 10$18083 sales
- Raw$65.9978 sales
- CGC 10$81.6059 sales
- PSA 9$59.9943 sales
- CGC 9$65.0011 sales
- PSA 8$56.506 sales
- CGC 9.5$55.806 sales
- TAG 10$2003 sales
From 301 completed sales recorded between Nov 3, 2025 and Aug 16, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 222 graded sales and 5,120,648 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Lillie's Determination is a Special Illustration Rare Pokémon card from Mega Evolution (#184), illustrated by satoma. It's a Supporter Trainer card. Its current blended market value is $66.56 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $195 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 3× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 20 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
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Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $143.50 | #138785553 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $120.00 | #158080647 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $120.00 | #159136224 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $120.00 | #161210423 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $184.20 | #156293370 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 8 | $45.00 | #137764751 ✓ |
| 14 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $148.79 | #159472779 ✓ |
| 14 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $56.00 | #138483497 ✓ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $60.00 | #133689753 ✓ |
| 11 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $48.00 | #151020104 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 49.2% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$57); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Lillie's Determination is a Secret / Rainbow in Mega Evolution — the pack's hit slot lands on Secret / Rainbow 2.5% of the time, split across 12 secret / rainbow cards in the set, so pulling this exact card is roughly 1 in 482 packs.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $195.00 | $72 | +$57 | 2.9× |
| PSA 9 | $62.00 | $71 | −$75 | 0.9× |
| PSA 8 | $58.00 | $71 | −$79 | 0.9× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 9,873 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 49.2% | $195.00 |
| PSA 9 | 40.4% | $62.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 10.3% | $67.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 49% of 9,873 PSA-graded Lillie's Determination copies are a gem-mint 10 (4,859 of 9,873) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Lillie's Determination 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 4,859 | $195$166–$224 | |
| PSA 8pop 875 | ✓ 51 cert-verified$58 | |
| PSA 7pop 107 | ✓ 5 cert-verified$45$40–$57 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $45 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
8% spreadCurrently 8% cheaper on PriceCharting than TCGplayer. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
Card textAttacks, abilities, weakness / resistance / retreat
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Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Lillie's Determination cards
There are 4 different Lillie's Determination printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Mega Evolution #184 (Special Illustration Rare).
More from Mega Evolution
Frequently asked questions
How much is Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #184) worth?
As of 20 August 2026, Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution is worth approximately $66.56 ungraded (near-mint), and around $195 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Lillie's Determination?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution is worth around $195 — roughly 3× the raw ungraded value of $66.56.
Should I grade my Lillie's Determination?
A PSA 10 sells for about $195 versus $66.56 raw — roughly a 3× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Lillie's Determination rare?
Lillie's Determination is a Special Illustration Rare card from Mega Evolution (card #184), illustrated by satoma. Its current blended market value is $66.56 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #184) — Pokémon market value $66.56, PSA 10 $195.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/mega-evolution/lillie-s-determination-184<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=me1-184" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Lillie's Determination price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>