Mega Lucario exMEP 33 · Mega Evolution Black Star Promos Price & Value
Market value · Near Mint
Typical copy sold $19 16 sales, all conditionsPack fresh $24est.
- PSA 8$16pop 145
- PSA 9$25pop 2,708
- PSA 10$10020 sold · 90d · pop 9,483
Why prices differ
TCGplayer's figure is what sellers are asking on their marketplace, not what copies sold for — an asking price sits above a completed sale because it is the start of a negotiation, not the end of one. Our price comes from those same completed sales, adjusted to Near Mint — the median below mixes every condition together, and most copies that change hands are played rather than mint. How we weigh them →
What's your copy worth?
Estimated. This card has enough sales to price the top 15% but not the top 5%, so pack-fresh is projected from the gap we measure between those two tiers on cards that do — about 1.4x on vintage, 1.2x on modern. $25.26. That's about +26% over a typical Near Mint copy.
ⓘ How do we work this out?
We take every real sale of this exact card over the last 12 months (10 sales), sort them by price, and read off the top 15% and top 5%. No multipliers, no guesses — the prices cleaner copies actually fetched.
Why cleaner copies cost more: buyers can see condition in the photos and pay for it. Listings sellers describe as pack fresh or gem mint land in this top band 1.7× more often than ordinary ones — the premium follows the card, not the hype.
Copies in this band are also the ones collectors send to grading: far more likely than a typical binder copy to be submitted at all — and to come back with the strong grade that carries the PSA prices shown on this page. That prospect is part of what buyers are paying for here.
These are read straight off this card's own completed sales — sort them by price and take the top 15% and top 5%. Whether your copy qualifies is a judgment made by looking at the card.
What this price is based on
High confidence16 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 3, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario ex - 033 Black Star Mega Evolution Promo$14.99
- Aug 3, 2026eBay — Pokemon TCG Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution Black Star Promo 033$11.99
- Jul 29, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2026 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q7270$18.50
- Jul 19, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2025 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q4326$12.49
- Jul 9, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$19.99
- Jul 7, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2026 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q4094$22.50
- Jul 4, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$18.89
- Jul 4, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$18.50
By grade
- CGC 10$45.60446 sales
- CGC 9$15.6064 sales
- CGC 9.5$16.8033 sales
- Raw$19.7426 sales
- PSA 10$86.0022 sales
- CGC 8.5$12.0021 sales
- PSA 9$29.009 sales
- CGC 8$12.008 sales
From 644 completed sales recorded between Apr 27, 2026 and Sep 3, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
NOT WORTH ITBased on 617 graded sales and 5,111,832 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
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✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Mega Lucario ex is a Promo Pokémon card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (#33, released 2025), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $20.04 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $100 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 5× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 4 September 2026.
Mega Lucario ex price history & recent sales
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history692 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.
Demand & liquidity
Last sold $25 · PSA 9 · 3 Sep 2026
How often each grade sells · last 90 days, all marketplaces
Is Mega Lucario ex worth grading?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 78.1% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$9); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Mega Lucario ex is a Commoncard — a guaranteed slot in every pack, not a rarity gamble, so there's no pull-odds figure for it.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $100.00 | $71 | +$9 | 5.0× |
| PSA 9 | $24.99 | $70 | −$65 | 1.2× |
| PSA 8 | $16.00 | $70 | −$74 | 0.8× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 946 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 78.1% | $100.00 |
| PSA 9 | 20.7% | $25.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 1.2% | $17.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — every grade, with gem rates
Only 76% of 12,397 PSA-graded Mega Lucario ex copies are a gem-mint 10 (9,483 of 12,397) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — a lower gem rate means a Mega Lucario ex 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
Mega Lucario ex Holo Promo ME: Mega Evolution Promo 033 NMRaw · eBay$11.50
Mega Lucario EX #33 Mega Evolution Black Star Promo Holo Pokemon NM V2Raw · eBay$13.49
Mega Lucario EX Black Star Promo 033Raw · eBay$13.99
Mega Lucario ex 033 Me: Mega Evolution Promo HoloRaw · eBay$14.00
Mega Lucario ex 033 Holo Promo ME: Mega Evolution Promo Pokemon NM/MRaw · eBay$14.00
Mega Lucario ex 033 Me: Mega Evolution Promo HoloRaw · eBay$14.79Cheapest raw copy $11.50 — 43% below our estimate of $20
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.
All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 9,48320 · 90d | ✓ 956 cert-verified$100$77–$103 | |
| PSA 9pop 2,708 | $25$21–$29 | |
| PSA 8pop 145 | ✓ 5 cert-verified$16 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
A typical Near Mint copy sells for $19.20. Grading-candidate copies — the cleanest 15% of sales — typically fetch $20.00 (+4%). Pack-fresh examples — the top 5% — go for about $24.20.
From 10 sales in the last 12 months. These describe the market — whether a specific copy is a grading candidate is a judgment made by looking at it.
For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $17 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
16% spreadCurrently 16% cheaper on TCGplayer than PriceCharting. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#12 on the radarLucario is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “Mega Lucario results at worlds” · 46↑
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Mega Lucario ex cards
There are 7 different Mega Lucario ex printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33 (Promo).
More from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos
Frequently asked questions
How much is Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) worth?
As of 4 September 2026, Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth approximately $20.04 ungraded (near-mint), and around $100 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Mega Lucario ex?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth around $100 — roughly 5× the raw ungraded value of $20.04.
Should I grade my Mega Lucario ex?
A PSA 10 sells for about $100 versus $20.04 raw — roughly a 5× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Mega Lucario ex rare?
Mega Lucario ex is a Promo card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (card #33), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $20.04 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
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Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) — Pokémon market value $20.04, PSA 10 $100.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/mega-evolution-black-star-promos/mega-lucario-ex-33<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=mep-33" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Mega Lucario ex price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>