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Check your printing7 different Mega Lucario ex printings exist — is this your card? Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33
Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33 Pokémon card
Promo

Mega Lucario exMEP 33 · Mega Evolution Black Star Promos Price & Value

2025 · Illustrated by 5ban Graphics

Market value · Near Mint

$20.04

Typical copy sold $19 16 sales, all conditionsPack fresh $24est.

  • PSA 8$16pop 145
  • PSA 9$25pop 2,708
  • PSA 10$10020 sold · 90d · pop 9,483
LiquiditySells often
Confidence84 · high16 raw sales in 90 days, closely clustered, last sale 1 month ago.
Sales · 90 days414
Last sale$13 Raw · 3 Aug 2026
Range$12$20
Cert-verified10 PSA sales
Sold prices, not asking. Near Mint estimate from 27 completed sales of this exact card, each adjusted for the condition it sold in. Listings ask what a seller hopes for; this is what copies actually changed hands for, which is why it can sit below what you see for sale. Updated 4 September 2026. Estimate, not an appraisalhow we price →

Why prices differ

Recent sold median 16 completed sales$19.74−1%
TCGplayer market asking prices$11.94−40%

TCGplayer's figure is what sellers are asking on their marketplace, not what copies sold for — an asking price sits above a completed sale because it is the start of a negotiation, not the end of one. Our price comes from those same completed sales, adjusted to Near Mint — the median below mixes every condition together, and most copies that change hands are played rather than mint. How we weigh them →

What's your copy worth?

What's your copy worth?
Not sure which condition? Grade it from a photo
Estimated value · Pack fresh
$25.26
Based on 10 sold sales

Estimated. This card has enough sales to price the top 15% but not the top 5%, so pack-fresh is projected from the gap we measure between those two tiers on cards that do — about 1.4x on vintage, 1.2x on modern. $25.26. That's about +26% over a typical Near Mint copy.

How do we work this out?

We take every real sale of this exact card over the last 12 months (10 sales), sort them by price, and read off the top 15% and top 5%. No multipliers, no guesses — the prices cleaner copies actually fetched.

Why cleaner copies cost more: buyers can see condition in the photos and pay for it. Listings sellers describe as pack fresh or gem mint land in this top band 1.7× more often than ordinary ones — the premium follows the card, not the hype.

Copies in this band are also the ones collectors send to grading: far more likely than a typical binder copy to be submitted at all — and to come back with the strong grade that carries the PSA prices shown on this page. That prospect is part of what buyers are paying for here.

These are read straight off this card's own completed sales — sort them by price and take the top 15% and top 5%. Whether your copy qualifies is a judgment made by looking at the card.

What this price is based on

High confidence

16 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.

Range$11.99$35.00lowest to highest sale
Sales rate107.3/mo644 recorded
Latest sale33d ago16 sales in 90 days
Where it sells100% eBaylast 90 days

Recent Raw sales

By grade

  • CGC 10$45.60446 sales
  • CGC 9$15.6064 sales
  • CGC 9.5$16.8033 sales
  • Raw$19.7426 sales
  • PSA 10$86.0022 sales
  • CGC 8.5$12.0021 sales
  • PSA 9$29.009 sales
  • CGC 8$12.008 sales

From 644 completed sales recorded between Apr 27, 2026 and Sep 3, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.

Grade it or not

NOT WORTH IT

Based on 617 graded sales and 5,111,832 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.

See the numbers — Trader plan and above

Buy this card

Buying this card on eBay? The free CardTrack extension shows our value and a deal verdict right on the listing. Add to Chrome →

Is it worth it?

An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.

Sign in to analyse

Mega Lucario ex is a Promo Pokémon card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (#33, released 2025), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $20.04 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $100 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 5× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.

Prices last updated 4 September 2026.

4.1%
Played in 4.1% of competitive decks — 147 of 3,614 decklists across the last 37 Standard tournaments.

Mega Lucario ex price history & recent sales

Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.

Price history · Raw

1 Mar 20265 Sept 2026
Latest
$20.04
Period high
$20.04
Period low
$14.36
Change
0.3% · all time
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Verified sales history692 in 90 daysreal completed listings

Last sold
$15
Raw · 3 Aug 2026
Typical Raw
$20
Sales · last 90 days
35
How often it sells
Sells often
daily · 17 in last 30 days

Real completed eBay sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title. Implausibly priced listings (lots, proxies, empty slabs) and wrong-variant sales are filtered out. Links to eBay are affiliate links — we may earn a commission.

Last sold price
$18
CGC 10 · 24 Aug 2026
Typical PSA 10
$108
Sales · last 90 days
647
How often it sells
Sells often
268 in last 30 days

Real completed sale prices from Fanatics Collect — weekly and premier auctions plus marketplace Buy It Now sales, refreshed periodically. Grade read from the listing title.

DateGradePriceCert
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$94.99#163904713
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$85.00#161927803
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$85.00#167619776
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$85.00#161927802
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$82.85#160755726
30 Aug 2026PSA 10$86.00#166201091
30 Aug 2026PSA 9$26.00#167358598
29 Aug 2026PSA 9$22.95#167601615
29 Aug 2026PSA 9$18.40#163139031
29 Aug 2026PSA 9$25.00#166799987

Demand & liquidity

Very liquid · Sells oftenDemand 83/100
Sales · 30d156
Sales · 90d414
HypeOn the radar
CGC 10
$46
CGC 9
$16
CGC 9.5
$17
Raw
$20
PSA 10
$86
CGC 8.5
$12

Last sold $25 · PSA 9 · 3 Sep 2026

How often each grade sells · last 90 days, all marketplaces

CGC 10285sells often
CGC 938sells often
PSA 1020sells regularly
Raw16sells regularly
CGC 8.515sells regularly
CGC 9.512sells regularly

Is Mega Lucario ex worth grading?

$8

Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 78.1% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$9); most land at PSA 9 or below.

Gem rate (est.)78.1%
Expected return$8
PSA 10 best case+$9
Break-evenPSA 10+
VerdictNot worth it

The odds

Mega Lucario ex is a Commoncard — a guaranteed slot in every pack, not a rarity gamble, so there's no pull-odds figure for it.

PSA 10 (gem mint)76.5%9,483 of 12,397
PSA 921.8%2,708 of 12,397
PSA graded so far12,397
Gem Mint 109,483
Total graded12,397

Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.

Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
Target gradeEst. valueGrading feeNet vs rawMultiple
PSA 10$100.00$71+$95.0×
PSA 9$24.99$70$651.2×
PSA 8$16.00$70$740.8×

⚖️ Risk-adjusted return

Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 946 PSA-graded copies:

Likely outcomeChanceValue
PSA 1078.1%$100.00
PSA 920.7%$25.00
PSA ≤81.2%$17.00

Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.

Population across gradersPSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — every grade, with gem rates

Only 76% of 12,397 PSA-graded Mega Lucario ex copies are a gem-mint 10 (9,483 of 12,397) — the rest grade lower.

PSA12,397 gradedPSA 10 · 9,483 · 76% gem
109,483
92,708
8145
723
628
55
42
31
11
TAG514 gradedTAG 10 · 354 · 69% gem
10354
9146
8.57
83
7.53
6.51

Real graded population from PSA, CGC, BGS & TAG — a lower gem rate means a Mega Lucario ex 10 is harder to pull.

Copies for sale right now

Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Prices shown are sold-based, not sponsored placements.

All grades & conditions

Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
Graded prices
Ungraded (raw)$20.04
PSA graded price estimates by grade
GradeRelative valuePrice
PSA 10pop 9,48320 · 90d✓ 956 cert-verified$100$77$103
PSA 9pop 2,708$25$21$29
PSA 8pop 145✓ 5 cert-verified$16
“Sold” = median of real recent sold listings at that grade (eBay or Fanatics Collect — hover a badge to see which). “Modelled” = no verified graded sale behind the figure; it is derived from the raw price and reference guides, so treat it as a ceiling to check, not a price to quote. Confidence reflects source backing and price spread — not PSA-official values.
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
What premium copies fetch

A typical Near Mint copy sells for $19.20. Grading-candidate copies — the cleanest 15% of sales — typically fetch $20.00 (+4%). Pack-fresh examples — the top 5% — go for about $24.20.

Near Mint $19.20Grading candidate $20.00Pack fresh $24.20

From 10 sales in the last 12 months. These describe the market — whether a specific copy is a grading candidate is a judgment made by looking at it.

Raw price by condition
Holofoil · live market via TCGplayer
NMNear Mint$20.04
MPModerately Played$17.78
HPHeavily Played$16.55
DMGDamaged$15.64
7-day 2.0%
30-day 6.6%
90-day 1.1%
All-time high$31
All-time low$17
What NM / LP / MP actually mean — and how much they cost

For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $17 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.

Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz

Cross-market prices

16% spread
TCGplayer · cheapest$12
PriceCharting · dearest$14

Currently 16% cheaper on TCGplayer than PriceCharting. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.

Market signal

Cross-marketSome gap 16% gap

Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.

🔥 Trending in the community

#12 on the radar
Mentions this week7

Lucario is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →

What people are saying: Mega Lucario results at worlds · 46↑

About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Aura PokémonGEN IVRioluLucario

It has the ability to sense the auras of all things. It understands human speech.

Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Number#33
RarityPromo
Released2025
Card IDmep-33
SourceAggregated marketplaces

Other Mega Lucario ex cards

There are 7 different Mega Lucario ex printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33 (Promo).

More from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos

Frequently asked questions

How much is Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) worth?

As of 4 September 2026, Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth approximately $20.04 ungraded (near-mint), and around $100 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.

What is the PSA 10 price for Mega Lucario ex?

A PSA 10 (gem mint) Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth around $100 — roughly 5× the raw ungraded value of $20.04.

Should I grade my Mega Lucario ex?

A PSA 10 sells for about $100 versus $20.04 raw — roughly a 5× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.

Is Mega Lucario ex rare?

Mega Lucario ex is a Promo card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (card #33), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $20.04 ungraded.

Cite & embed this card

Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.

Citation
Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) — Pokémon market value $20.04, PSA 10 $100.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/mega-evolution-black-star-promos/mega-lucario-ex-33
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