Market value · ungraded
What's your copy worth?
What this price is based on
High confidence28 sales in 90 days, closely clustered.
Recent Raw sales
- Aug 3, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario ex - 033 Black Star Mega Evolution Promo$14.99
- Aug 3, 2026eBay — Pokemon TCG Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution Black Star Promo 033$11.99
- Jul 29, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2026 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q7270$18.50
- Jul 19, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2025 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q4326$12.49
- Jul 9, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$19.99
- Jul 7, 2026eBay — MEGA LUCARIO EX 2026 POKEMON MEGA EVOLUTION BLACK STAR PROMO HOLO #033 Q4094$22.50
- Jul 4, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$18.89
- Jul 4, 2026eBay — Pokémon TCG Mega Lucario EX MAR Black Star Promo MEP 033 English NMNM$18.50
By grade
- CGC 10$45.60485 sales
- CGC 9$16.8089 sales
- Raw$19.9935 sales
- CGC 9.5$16.8033 sales
- CGC 8.5$14.4019 sales
- CGC 9.6$23.005 sales
- CGC 8$15.605 sales
- PSA 9$50.004 sales
From 684 completed sales recorded between Apr 27, 2026 and Aug 3, 2026. Sold prices only — asking prices are never counted.
Grade it or not
GRADE ITBased on 648 graded sales and 5,111,723 pop-report entries for a near-mint copy.
See the numbers — Trader plan and aboveBuy this card
✨ Is it worth it?
An AI market read of this card — value, momentum, grading economics, liquidity. It lays out the data; you decide.
Mega Lucario ex is a Promo Pokémon card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (#33), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $14.36 ungraded, with a PSA 10 worth around $108 — a gem-mint grading premium of roughly 8× the raw value. Prices are aggregated across marketplaces — raw and graded, updated daily and shown in your local currency.
Prices last updated 21 August 2026.
The receipts
Graded a PSA 10? See its cert-verified sales and price history → — individual sales PSA tied to a specific slab, each with a cert number you can check.
Price history · Raw
We'll email you when this card's value crosses your target.
Verified sales history10 in 90 days✓ real completed listings
| Date | Grade | Price | Cert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $89.99 | #167104193 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $95.00 | #157245577 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $98.00 | #160829497 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $109.50 | #160829496 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $108.00 | #166563798 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 10 | $99.99 | #167873906 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $23.00 | #161210421 ✓ |
| 16 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $19.51 | #166835027 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $22.50 | #162249397 ✓ |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSA 9 | $21.40 | #169143531 ✓ |
Should you grade it?
Expected return across every likely grade, after fees — the realistic average, not the best case. Only 78.1% of copies gem (PSA 10 best case +$23); most land at PSA 9 or below.
The odds
Mega Lucario ex is a Commoncard — a guaranteed slot in every pack, not a rarity gamble, so there's no pull-odds figure for it.
Estimates only. Pack odds come from CardTrack's pack model (the same one behind the pack simulator) — not an official rate. Grading odds are the real cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies, so it overstates the true first-submission gem rate. Full grade-by-grade breakdown below.
Grade-by-grade ROI & risk-adjusted outcomesNet vs raw per target grade, plus the probability-weighted distribution
| Target grade | Est. value | Grading fee | Net vs raw | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $108.00 | $71 | +$23 | 7.5× |
| PSA 9 | $26.00 | $70 | −$59 | 1.8× |
⚖️ Risk-adjusted return
Best case isn't the whole story. Weighting every grade by how often it actually happens, across 946 PSA-graded copies:
| Likely outcome | Chance | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 78.1% | $108.00 |
| PSA 9 | 20.7% | $26.00 |
| PSA ≤8 | 1.2% | $14.00 |
Net = graded value − raw value − grading cost (tier fee + ~$20 round-trip shipping), using PSA fees as of 2026-06-28; the paused PSA Value tier is excluded so this isn't overstated. Gem rate is estimated from cumulative PSA population, which skews toward nicer, resubmitted copies — so it overstates the true grade rate. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Population across gradersPSA, CGC & BGS — every grade, with gem rates
Only 78% of 946 PSA-graded Mega Lucario ex copies are a gem-mint 10 (739 of 946) — the rest grade lower.
Real graded population from PSA, CGC & BGS — a lower gem rate means a Mega Lucario ex 10 is harder to pull.
Copies for sale right now
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All grades & conditions
Every grade we pricePSA / CGC / BGS ladder with per-grade population
| Grade | Relative value | Price |
|---|---|---|
| PSA 10pop 739 | ✓ 718 cert-verified$108$108–$205 | |
| PSA 9pop 196 | ✓ 175 cert-verified$26$26–$40 |
Raw condition ladderNM → damaged, with real sold medians where we have them
For context: a graded PSA 7 slab of this card sells for about $17 (cert-verified) — a heavily-played raw copy shouldn't cost much more than that.
Market dataCross-market spread, EU price, momentum & community buzz
Cross-market prices
8% spreadCurrently 8% cheaper on TCGplayer than PriceCharting. These are independent market prices for the same card — a wide gap can mean a buying opportunity. Informational only, not arbitrage advice.
Market signal
Derived from this card's 90-day price history, recent trend and cross-market price gap. Informational, not advice.
🔥 Trending in the community
#7 on the radarLucario is one of the most-talked-about Pokémon right now across the Pokémon investing & TCG subreddits. See the hype radar →
What people are saying: “My girlfriend and I broke up” · 3226↑
About the PokémonSpecies, generation, evolution line
Card detailsSet, rarity, artist, Pokédex & specs
Other Mega Lucario ex cards
There are 7 different Mega Lucario ex printings — make sure you're valuing the right one. This is Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33 (Promo).
More from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos
Frequently asked questions
How much is Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) worth?
As of 21 August 2026, Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth approximately $14.36 ungraded (near-mint), and around $108 in PSA 10 gem mint. Values are blended from real Cardmarket, eBay sold and TCGplayer prices and update daily.
What is the PSA 10 price for Mega Lucario ex?
A PSA 10 (gem mint) Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos is worth around $108 — roughly 8× the raw ungraded value of $14.36.
Should I grade my Mega Lucario ex?
A PSA 10 sells for about $108 versus $14.36 raw — roughly a 8× uplift. Grading is worth it when that premium comfortably beats the grading fee and the card is clean enough to have a real shot at a 10. See the "Should you grade it?" estimate above for net profit per grade.
Is Mega Lucario ex rare?
Mega Lucario ex is a Promo card from Mega Evolution Black Star Promos (card #33), illustrated by 5ban Graphics. Its current blended market value is $14.36 ungraded.
Cite & embed this card
Free to use with attribution to CardTrack.
Mega Lucario ex (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #33) — Pokémon market value $14.36, PSA 10 $108.00. Source: CardTrack, https://cardtrack.com/pokemon/card/mega-evolution-black-star-promos/mega-lucario-ex-33<iframe src="https://cardtrack.com/embed/card?id=mep-33" width="100%" height="160" style="border:0;max-width:460px" title="Mega Lucario ex price — CardTrack" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui">Source: <a href="https://cardtrack.com">CardTrack</a></p>